So I would approach your problem this way: 20 tables x 9 players x 8.5 hands dealt in 15 minutes = 1,530 unique poker hands dealt in this room every 15 minutes. The problem with the probability charts in the thread whosnext linked to is that they assume every player stays in until the river every hand, and they don't include high hands in which only one hole card plays, which your room may allow. It turned out that the odds of someone making a straight flush to beat me were about 50-50 in those circumstances (I ignored the odds of someone making exactly AAAAK for the sake of simplicity). It did hold up, but when I got home I looked up the odds of making a straight flush, multiplied those odds by my estimate of the number of seated players at 25 qualifying tables, and multiplied those odds by my estimate of the number of hands that could be dealt in 15 minutes (maybe 8 or 9). I was nervous during those 15 minutes because I had no idea how likely that hand was to hold up. The number of seated players during that time.Ī couple of years ago, I made AAAAQ with 15 minutes to go on the time period for a $500 bonus on a busy Saturday. The number of hands that are dealt per table in the relevant time frame.Ĥ. The odds of making a qualifying high hand.ģ.

A couple of them you can try to calculate exactly, but a couple of them you can only estimate.ġ. There are at least four variables to consider here.

Odds based on poker hands